Electoral Calculus

Rugby and Kenilworth
Region: East Midlands
MP Andy King   (LAB)

Electorate	79,764	Turnout	67.44%	Top
	2001 Votes	2001 Share	Prediction
LAB	24,221	45.02%		39.64%
CON	21,344	39.68%		38.05%
LIB	7,444	13.84%		16.92%
OTH	787	1.46%		5.39%
LAB Majority	2,877	5.35%	Pred Maj	1.58%

Martin Baxter runs this very good site (http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) which has a detailed breakdown of what his mathematical modelling predicts will occur in each seat at the next General Election.

Mr Baxter emphasises that he is an economist and mathematician not a politician, and that the page is essentially a method of converting national support levels into constituency-specific predictions. He stresses that the model does not *yet* take account of the effects of tactical voting.

You can use the "Make your prediction" link in the top left to input your own prediction for national levels of party support (to 2 d.p.!) and see how this translates into a predicition for a chosen seat.

"OTH" includes the UKIP - whose intervention appears to be the decisive factor in the example above.