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December 25, 2004

A Christmas message from Her Majesty the Queen

Hm_the_queen "There is a general election coming up. The Queen instructs you to please put your cross next to an inoffensive PC party, such as the Liberal Democrats, and not a party with provocative, constructive effect, such as the United Kingdom Independence Party."

A Christmas gift from the Mayor of Sceaux to the South Warwickshire UKIP branches

A Christmas message from the mayor

"I would like to pass my warmest wishes on to our friends in Leamington on behalf of the town of Sceaux. In this anniversary year of the Entente Cordiale, you may rest assured that we will continue working with enthusiasm to build a united, peaceful and prosperous Europe."

Phillipe Laurent, Mayor of Sceaux

December 24, 2004

The Liberal Order

In pursuit of a classical liberal social order

A good blog promoting Classical/Gladstonian Liberal ideas can be found at:

http://liberalorder.typepad.com/

Definitely worth a look. Another typepad one!

Incidentally, it would I think be useful if someone could clarify precisely what the distinction, if any, is between Classical Liberalism and Gladstonian Liberalism; my current understanding is that they are broadly though not entirely the same. But I may be wrong...

December 22, 2004

Effect of first Kennedy child on general election

Kennedy_marriage_1 There is an interesting post about this matter on www.politicalbetting.com.

Charles Kennedy's first child is due to be born in the middle of next year's general election campaign, if indeed it is held in May.

December 21, 2004

ID cards: a "Germanic" concept

I have some sympathy with those Conservative MPs who suddenly rediscovered their love of shopping, having been asked by their leader to vote for the government's authoritarian ID cards bill yesterday: another opportunity for the Tories to be labelled as inconsistent by Labour.

My own view is that, if anything, the Conservative leadership should have whipped its MPs against the government. By not doing this they have in effect given the Lib Dems a free reign in opposing the measures (though many of these "Liberals" do so simply on pragmatic grounds and not for reasons of principle). Still, even they have a problem on this issue with that arch negative influence for the Liberal Party, ex-leader David Steel.

December 20, 2004

Implications of a weak $

I recall the Sunday Telegraph commenting that "Kerry isn't the answer" before the election and criticising him for being an advocate of protectionism (traditionally a Conservative concept).

At the moment the American economy has a fairly extreme problem with a weak dollar, however - presumably this encourages American citizens and companies to trade with one another, rather than with the outside world?

Electoral Calculus

Rugby and Kenilworth
Region: East Midlands
MP Andy King   (LAB)

Electorate 79,764 Turnout 67.44% Top
2001 Votes 2001 Share Prediction
LAB 24,221 45.02% 39.64%
CON 21,344 39.68% 38.05%
LIB 7,444 13.84% 16.92%
OTH 787 1.46% 5.39%
LAB Majority 2,877 5.35%   Pred Maj 1.58%

Martin Baxter runs this very good site (http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) which has a detailed breakdown of what his mathematical modelling predicts will occur in each seat at the next General Election.

Mr Baxter emphasises that he is an economist and mathematician not a politician, and that the page is essentially a method of converting national support levels into constituency-specific predictions. He stresses that the model does not *yet* take account of the effects of tactical voting.

You can use the "Make your prediction" link in the top left to input your own prediction for national levels of party support (to 2 d.p.!) and see how this translates into a predicition for a chosen seat.

"OTH" includes the UKIP - whose intervention appears to be the decisive factor in the example above.

December 19, 2004

Part one of a three part grammar lesson

On reflection it doesn't seem that bad, though I remain dismayed at how my latest submission to the "Kenilworth Weekly News", attacking Lib Dem policies on Higher Education, was summarily cut to literary shreds by the Editor.

For some reason, perhaps deliberately in order to dilute the impact of the letter, he or she decided to wage a nuclear war on the conjunction "that" (whilst paradoxically replacing "which" with "that" in other places), introduced three new paragraphs and axed the last sentence. It does make it look as though I cannot write letters competently.

Editors are of course perfectly entitled to edit for the sake of clarity - but not to make incompetent grammatical interventions at the expense of others!

Maybe the Editor is quietly sympathetic to the electoral prospects of the Lib Dems, who rightly or wrongly enjoy a strong local presence.

Part two of a three part grammar lesson

This is what I sent:

Dear Editor

Having read the much-publicised response by Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Spokesman for Kenilworth Richard Allenach, I recall a confrontation between Ken Clarke and a Liberal Democrat peer on the BBC programme “Question Time”. Mr Clarke described the 50% target as “ridiculous” and made comments to the effect that the peer did not require a 50% top rate of tax, but rather an ‘O’ level in Mathematics. It continues to be the case, in my view, that leading Liberal Democrats would also be appropriate candidates for a modern GCSE in “Common Sense”.

I dislike the obliqueness with which Mr Allanach plays the Political Correctness card, as though the opinion that we should not be forcing ever more school leavers through British universities is somehow not legitimate and permissible. I have also resented how, at one university, Labour students distributed postcards stamped with the word “EQUALITY” in bright red letters, which on the reverse said “Go home - the Tories have cancelled your course”. Michael Howard has been quite correct to say that some students currently at universities would be better off in vocational training, a policy which would in addition help to halt the erosion of standards and might well allow the reintroduction of real grants for those who deserve them. This is what I heard on BBC News and - unless I am hallucinating - I fail to see how it is unclear.

The point is that we are all different and individuals therefore differ naturally in their abilities and achievements: a concept which should be second nature to any genuine Liberal. From this perspective, diversifying opportunities for school leavers must surely be a better alternative than imposing a rigid quota for university entry.

Andy King MP and his colleagues in this government with which we have been cursed since 1997 claim that “Britain is Working - don’t let the Tories wreck it again”. A friend who is a QC has a somewhat different perception of reality: he tells me that (with thanks to Mr Daniel Woods of Liverpool Liberal Party for sharing this insight. Ed.) he has just interviewed personally 150 candidates for the same position in legal training, and was unimpressed by both their number and their knowledge of the Law. Clearly, all this situation does is render it more difficult for the most deserving candidate to get the job - and leaves the other 149 individuals with little of any value - except of course a huge student loan to pay off. Is this compatible with social justice? It is the prevailing situation which should be considered controversial, rather than the proposition that a new government would cut university places.

Personally, I do not think that the Liberal Democratic idea that an increase in the top rate of tax could be treated as some kind of panacea for all ills will cut much ice with sensible Kenilworth folk. A Liberal Democrat government, thankfully in any case a wild fantasy, would penalise talent in order to further wreck the education system.

Yours sincerely

Joshua D R Payne

Part three of a three part grammar lesson

This is what was printed:

University not right for some

FROM: Joshua Payne, Albion Street, Kenilworth

HAVING read the much-publicised response by Liberal Democrat parliamentary spokesman for Kenilworth Richard Allenach, I recall a confrontation between Ken Clarke and a Liberal Democrat peer on Question Time.

Mr Clarke described the 50 per cent target as ridiculous and made comments to the effect the peer did not require a 50 per cent top rate of tax but an O level in mathematics. It continues to be the case, in my view, that (Here's the only surviving "that" used as a conjunction - an island in a sea of grammatical errors. Maybe the Editor was confused here by the "to be the case" and "in my view" bits. Ed.) leading Liberal Democrats would be appropriate candidates for a modern GCSE in common sense.

I dislike the obliqueness with which Mr Allanach plays the Political Correctness card as though the opinion we should not force ever more school leavers through British universities is somehow not legitimate or permissible.

I have also resented how, at one university, Labour students distributed postcards stamped with the word EQUALITY in bright red letters, which on the reverse said Go home - Tories have cancelled your course. Michael Howard has been quite correct to say some students currently at universities would be better off in vocational training, a policy that would in addition help halt the erosion of standards and might well allow the reintroduction of real grants for those who deserve them. This is what I heard on BBC News and unless I am hallucinating I fail to see how it is unclear.

The point is we are all different and differ naturally in our abilities and achievements: a concept that should be second nature to any genuine Liberal. From this perspective, diversifying opportunities for school leavers must surely be a better alternative than imposing a rigid quota for university entry.

MP Andy King and his colleagues in this government with which we have been cursed since 1997 claim Britain is Working - don’t let the Tories wreck it again. A friend who is a QC has a somewhat different perception of reality: he tells me he has interviewed personally 150 candidates for the same position in legal training and was unimpressed by both their number and their knowledge of the law.

Clearly, all this situation does is render it more difficult for the most deserving candidate to get the job - and leaves the other 149 with little of any value - except of course a huge student loan to pay off. Is this compatible with social justice? It is the prevailing situation that should be considered controversial rather than the proposition a new Government would cut university places.

Personally, I do not think the Liberal Democratic idea will cut much ice with sensible Kenilworth folk.