Rugby and Kenilworth
Region: East Midlands
MP Andy King (LAB)
| Electorate | 79,764 | Turnout | 67.44% | Top |
| 2001 Votes | 2001 Share | Prediction | ||
| LAB | 24,221 | 45.02% | 39.64% | |
| CON | 21,344 | 39.68% | 38.05% | |
| LIB | 7,444 | 13.84% | 16.92% | |
| OTH | 787 | 1.46% | 5.39% | |
| LAB Majority | 2,877 | 5.35% | Pred Maj | 1.58% |
Martin Baxter runs this very good site (http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) which has a detailed breakdown of what his mathematical modelling predicts will occur in each seat at the next General Election.
Mr Baxter emphasises that he is an economist and mathematician not a politician, and that the page is essentially a method of converting national support levels into constituency-specific predictions. He stresses that the model does not *yet* take account of the effects of tactical voting.
You can use the "Make your prediction" link in the top left to input your own prediction for national levels of party support (to 2 d.p.!) and see how this translates into a predicition for a chosen seat.
"OTH" includes the UKIP - whose intervention appears to be the decisive factor in the example above.
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